If you missed part 1, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/eb2-india-prediction-2013-2014.html
Q. What about processing time?
A. USCIS time to process I-485 application is already long (around 7 months at TSC). Due to large volume of applications from EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico) and EB2 India, processing time could slightly increase. Processing time is (supposed to be) updated every month. You can find the latest processing time here: https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
Q. Why are processing time not updated every month?
A. Three possible reasons: (1) They do update data but forget to change the "last updated date" (2) There is no change in processing time since they last updated it few months back (3) They did not have the time to update the dates. Scenario (2) is most likely scenario.
Q. Can I-485 application be processed faster?
A. Some applicants call USCIS repeatedly and open service request (even if they are within the processing time frame). This only helps in increasing the hold time when calling USCIS call center (since they keep the phone line busy). USCIS will run all the required checks and processes that they have established before approving I-485 applications. They are not going to skip this process (since it is part of national security checks). If your processing time is outside the average processing time listed on the official site, please open a service request.
Q. Is there a possibility of spillover to EB3 category in FY2013?
A. Remember USCIS cannot assign visas to applicants whose PD is after the VB cutoff dates (even if there are lots of spillovers remaining). In case EB2 India cannot use (approximately 12,000+) spillovers, it will flow to EB2 China. EB2 China will use up remaining spillovers until the cutoff date for EB2 China mentioned in VB. If there are still spillovers remaining then it will flow to EB3 categories.
Due to lag in various USCIS departments, it may take some time to calculate how much visas can flow to EB3 category. If they dont identify unused spillovers before Sept 30, then these visas will be wasted. If spillovers flow to EB3 category then EB3 ROW, EB3 China and EB3 Mexico could finally move ahead in Sept VB.
Q. Why didn't dates for EB2 India moved from May 2012 - July 2013?
A. Please see this link: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html
Fiscal Year 2014:
Q. How would dates move for EB2 India from October 2013 to December 2013?
A. October 2013 would be start of new fiscal year. EB2 India will again have a annual quota of around 2802 visas (or 233 per month). Hence based on CURRENT data, EB2 India could retrogress to around Jan 2005 to April 2005. It completely depends on amount of people porting from EB3 India. Higher the number of porters, more will be the retrogression (since supply is fixed at 233 per month but demand could be increasing).
Q. Instead of Oct 2013, can dates for EB2 India retrogress in Nov/Dec 2013?
A. Since USCIS already have I-485 pending inventory for EB2 India till May 2010, it is not likely that USCIS will wait till November 2013 or December 2013 to retrogress the dates. For every month it waits, the number of porters from EB3 India will increase (which could further retrogress the dates for EB2 India).
Update (July 12): Due to delay in moving F2A category, there is a possibility of more visas wasted in FB category. These visas will be assigned to EB category in FY 2014. There is a possibility that DOS may decide to assign some of these estimated spillovers to EB2 India in Oct 2013 VB (instead of waiting till July-Sept 2014). This could mean that dates for EB2 India could retrogress in Nov/Dec VB (instead of Oct VB). Without any spillovers, EB2 India only have around 2,802 visas allotted every year.
Q.When will EB2 India start moving forward in FY2014?
A. If the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India is more than 233 per month, then it would not move at all (or retrogress). In that case the only way it could start moving forward is when it gets FB/EB spillovers. Typically EB spillovers are applied in July-Sept. So dates could start moving then.
Q. How far could dates for EB2 India move in FY 2014?
A. Lets assume porting from EB3 India will use up all available quota for EB2 India (2802 visas). We will need to estimate how much EB and FB spillovers will flow to India. In FY 2013, EB got 18,000 spillovers from FB. EB3 got 5,148 of those spillovers. This means all other EB categories got 18000-5148 = 12852.
In FY2013, EB2 India is estimated to receive around 12,000-14,000. Most of these would (indirectly) be from FB spillovers. This means that in FY 2014 (similar to FY 2013), EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 and EB5 would again consume most of its annual quota (since demand is increasing every year). So EB2 India in FY 2014 may have to wait for unused visas in FB category (in FY 2013) to start moving forward.
One of the reasons EB2ROW is using up so much visas is because this category had retrogressed in FY 2012. Hence there was more demand in FY2013. Also there is always a possibility that applicants from EB3 ROW would start porting to EB2 ROW in FY 2014 in bigger numbers. This could increase the demand in EB2 ROW and causing potential retrogression in EB2 ROW around January - March 2014.
Q. How much FB spillovers will EB categories receive in FY 2014?
A. USCIS will publish this data around December 2013 - February 2014. Due to huge amount of waste in FB category in FY 2012, DOS has already started aggressively moving dates forward. F2A category is expected to be current in Aug/Sept VB.
This could mean that FB spillovers to all EB categories could be low (2,000 - 4,000). Depending on how accurately USCIS tracks data and allocates visas, it could even be zero. We will have to wait for USCIS to officially publish FB category usage around Feb 2014.
All this means that any movement for EB2 India in FY 2014 will directly depend on how much FB spillovers goes to EB categories. If its zero, EB2 India movement would be low (if any). If its huge (18,000) then it could be many years.
Update (July 23): Please see one more FAQ below:
Q. Why did dates for EB2 India move till May 2010 in 2012 VB?
A. Please see this: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/updated-more-predictions-from-charles.html
Update (August 14):
As most of you know October 2013 is start of new FY 2014. EB quota will reset back to 140,000 per year plus any spillovers. EB2 India quota is around 2,802 visas for entire year (plus any spillovers).
DOS can move dates for EB2 India in Oct VB in following three ways:
1. Immediately retrogress date to around April 2005 in Oct VB
2. Keep date as June 2008 in Oct VB (build porting demand and use any future spillovers) and retrogress in Nov VB to around April 2005.
3. Move date forward in Oct/Nov VB. However EB2 India could become unavailable from Dec VB.
In option 2 above, DOS can decide to allot future spillovers in Oct VB instead of waiting till July/Aug 2014 VB. It will also help build demand from people porting from EB3 India. The risk with this approach is if demand increases in other EB categories (EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 ROW) in FY 2014, EB2 India could become unavailable.
Important Notes: April 2005 date is based on July 2013 demand data (DOS did not release August and September demand data). EB2 India is expected to receive around 18,000 spillovers visas from Aug 1 to Sept 30. It is likely that significant amount of cases till March 2005 (mostly from porters) would be cleared out by Sept 30.
Visa consumption also depends on which PD the visa actually gets allotted in Aug and Sept (is it PD in 2004 or 2008 or somewhere in between). If they do not allot visas by PD (which is likely), a good chunk of porters with PD in 2004-2005 will remain pending. This could cause dates to retrogress back to around April 2005 (or later). In FY 2014, as long as monthly porters exceed 233 per month, EB2 India would not move forward unless it receives spillovers. For more details on how "233 per month" is calculated, please see this article. So exact dates for retrogression depends on lots of factors. It would be more clear once we get more data from USCIS (including latest demand data from DOS).
Trivia: There are around 25,000 cases pending in EB3 India between September 2003 to April 2005 and around 21,000 have been preadjudicated. Can you guess how many will port or have already ported?
Update (October 23):
As we mentioned in August, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India continues to be at a very high rate. It is likely to reach around 600-900 per month. This is due to huge amount of backlog in EB3 India category. Hence EB3 India applicants with PD from October 2003 to June 2008 are porting to EB2 India in large numbers.
Now the EB2 India quota for the year is 2,802 visas. You can see that with high rate of porting, it will easily use up this quota in the first few months. Hence the dates for EB2 India in December VB is likely to retrogress to around Feb 2005. This will reduce the porting rate significantly and make sure visa allocated does not exceed the INA guidelines.
In addition, EB2 India receives majority of the spillovers from other EB categories in the last quarter of fiscal year (July to September). It is likely that some of the expected spillovers have already been applied.
This could mean that dates for EB2 India may remain around Feb 2005 till around June 2014 VB. It is likely to start moving forward from July 2014 VB (when it is expected to receive spillovers from other EB categories).
Update (December 3):
EB2 India category is unavailable since November 20. This is due to huge demand in porting cases (around 150 per day from November 10 to November 20) from EB3 to EB2 category. This means there was demand for around 1,500 visas in just 10 days. Remember EB2 India quota is around 2,802 for the entire year. Due to this huge demand, EB2 India is unavailable from November 20.
In the update above, dated August 14, we had said that if DOS continues to keep date at 2008, it could result in EB2 India becoming unavailable around December. This is exactly what happened. It is possible that dates for EB2 India in January VB could become unavailable.
Update (December 21):
EB2 India FY 2014 Visa Bulletin Movement: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/12/eb2-india-fy-2014-movement.html
Update (January 27, 2014):
EB And FB Green Cards Allotted in Fiscal Year 2013: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/01/eb-and-fb-green-cards-alloted-in-fiscal.html
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