Monday, June 10, 2013

Analysis: Visa Bulletin July 2013

For July 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/july-2013-visa-bulletin.html

EB1: All EB1 categories continues to remain current. Though EB1 China and EB1 India have already used up their annual quota (and currently using visas from EB1 ROW since January 2013), this category should continue to remain current this fiscal year. However this would affect amount of spillovers to EB2 categories.

EB5: This category continues to remain current. Since demand is 75% higher than last fiscal year (according to Charles Oppenheim), the amount of spillover to EB2 category would be much lower than last year.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current.  Due to expected EB/FB spillovers, we do not expect this category to retrogress. However, due to retrogression in EB2 ROW last year, it would be consuming more visas than it did last fiscal year.

EB2 India: As per Charles Oppenheims predictions, there was (again) no movement in this category. You can read this article on why EB2 India is not moving forward since May 2012. However EB2 India should FINALLY move forward in the August and most likely September visa bulletin (due to EB spillovers). We will be adding a blog post on this soon.

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by only 3 weeks this month. Since EB2 China has already reached 2008, all of the EB/FB spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 should go to EB2 India. EB2 China is likely to move forward at 6-9 weeks per month.

EB3 ROW:  EB3 ROW had more demand than expected (400 in demand data). Hence the dates moved by only 4 months in July VB. This category has moved exactly 1.5 years in last 3 visa bulletins. Since it takes a while for USCIS and DOS to gauge the real demand (long processing time, people filing it later, etc), DOS would likely not move dates forward for next few visa bulletins. There is a small probability that date could retrogress slightly in September VB. It is very likely to start moving in Nov VB. We will continue to update as we get more details.

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 4 months. It is likely that EB3 China dates would continue to be ahead of EB2 China for remainder of FY 2013.

EB3 Mexico: EB3 Mexico also moved forward by 4 months.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: Due to huge demand and as Charles Oppenheim predicted, EB2 India moved by two weeks forward. On a positive side, it is continuing to slowly move forward every month (unlike EB2 India). One of the reason of forward movement could be people who are porting to EB2 India - thus freeing up visas for others applicants in this category. Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice). EB3 India is likely to start moving at rate of 3 weeks per month to make sure all visas are consumed in FY 2013.

EB3 Philippines: This category got the smallest forward movement of just one week. On the positive side it should start moving at 2 weeks per month (same reason as EB3 India - to consume all expected spillovers)

Tip: If you don't know, Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Family Categories:

The smallest movement of one week was in F1 Philippines, F3 Philippines and F4 Mexico.

F1 Philippines continues to move forward at very fast pace. It has moved 3 years in the last seven months; moving an average of 18 weeks every month. It is likely to move forward 5 months in September VB.

F2A Category: There has been a large amount of visas wasted in this category in FY2009, FY 2010 and FY 2012. To prevent this waste, DOS would most likely make this category as "current" in either August or September VB. This will help them build a "pipeline" of cases after applicants file I-485 applications. It is likely to remain current till Oct or Nov VB. Once enough demand has been generated, it is likely to retrogress back to around Sept 2012 and then continue to move forward slowly.

All other FB categories moved between 3 and 18 weeks.

Overall 18,000 visas were wasted in FB category in FY 2012. To prevent these wastes, dates are moving much faster in FB and some EB categories.

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

Also See:

June 2013 Demand Data: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/july-2013-demand-data.html

June 2013 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/visa-bulletin-june-2013.html

Recommended Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

29 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 11, 2013 at 10:23 AM

    Hello,
    1. After F2A retrogresses back to Sept. 2012 in Nov. VB, how much will it move each month after that? Will the movement be 3 months every month (like now) or slower?

    2. Is this F2A movement for all categories (including India)?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 11, 2013 at 7:16 PM

      1. Possible retrogression to Sept 2012 is an estimate. It could be higher or lower depending on actual demand for visas. We will have to wait to see the real demand before we can estimate the rate of forward movement after possible retrogression.

      2. Yes. This is for all countries in F2A category.

      Delete
  2. RohanJune 11, 2013 at 10:29 AM

    Does anybody know why the spillover to EB2 India was not reflected in the July VB ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 11, 2013 at 7:19 PM

      There could be many reasons why Charles Oppenheim did not apply spillovers in July.

      (1) He may be waiting to get a more accurate estimate of demand in other EB category before he can start moving dates forward.

      (2) He could be expecting EB3 India to EB2 India porting rate to increase. Hence the delay.

      (3) He seems to be confident that even after delaying movement, he can use up all 158,000 visas in FY 2013 (in just two more months).

      We would add a blog post on this little later.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousJune 11, 2013 at 10:33 AM

    What happens to EB3 India after FY2013 in Oct. VB? Will it continue to move 3 weeks; or 2 weeks; or back to 1 week? Or worse, will it retrogress?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 11, 2013 at 7:20 PM

      It is likely to continue moving forward at 2 weeks per month. It all depends on demand by applicants.

      Delete
  4. AnonymousJune 11, 2013 at 10:53 AM

    I'm in the EB3 ROW category, my PD is 2/2010, So if they go month to month after this I should get it in 2014, if they have lower demands beginning fiscal year 2104 and go faster it would be great. Wish it would be current in January to max March 2014.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousJune 11, 2013 at 1:52 PM

    I don't see why visa spillover automatically goes to India! It should be evenly split over all categories. Just because the Indians have clogged the system for everyone else (including themselves), doesn't mean they should get any additional visas!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 11, 2013 at 7:28 PM

      USCIS/DOS is actually following the law when applying spillovers.

      Here is a quick summary: First all spillovers is applied to all countries equally with max limit of 7% per country. If anything is left, then it goes to the most retrogressed country (which is India for EB2 and EB3 category).

      Also there are different rules for EB spillovers vs FB spillovers. Please see this for more details:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

      Delete
  6. AnonymousJune 14, 2013 at 7:46 AM

    Firstly, thanks for this great blog.
    When EB3 ROW begins moving again, do you have any predictions on the rate of movement, or is it too early to tell? Just wondering if we can hope for a month-month rate - I have a PD of 4/10, should I plan(hope) on it becoming current in mid 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 15, 2013 at 11:15 PM

      Thank you anonymous. We are currently calculating how fast EB3ROW would start moving in FY 2014. Please also see this link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/eb3-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

      Delete
  7. AnonymousJune 14, 2013 at 12:45 PM

    Hi, i'm legally working in the US and my F2A PD is Nov 2011. My case hasn't been approved yet, and according to the USCIS processing timeline, they've only approved the case prior to 23 Sep which prevents me to get any useful info from the call center. My question is can I file I-485 when PD becomes current even if my case hasn't been approved? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 16, 2013 at 8:30 PM

      USCIS allows concurrent I-130 and I-485 filing. Please see this link:

      http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=32d80a5659083210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=32d80a5659083210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJune 17, 2013 at 6:19 AM

      Just a follow up question to the OP.
      USCIS says there are some categories that does not allow concurrent filing even if a visa number is immediately available. however, USCIS does not list these categories. how do I know if F2A falls in this category or not? Thanks for your guidance

      Delete
    3. AmazonJune 17, 2013 at 12:46 PM

      In the link above, it says "who can file concurrently". Anyone not on the list cannot file concurrently.

      From my understanding (check with your lawyer) F2A would fall under "If an immigrant visa number is immediately available".

      Delete
  8. AnonymousJune 16, 2013 at 12:58 AM

    Thank you for your infomation.

    I wonder if EB3 ROW unskilled worker pd can pass by EB3 skilled worker pd.

    I heard there are few EB3 ROW unskilled worker 2008-2011 period.
    Do you know about it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 16, 2013 at 8:29 PM

      My guess would be it should be same dates.

      Delete
  9. AnonymousJune 17, 2013 at 11:02 AM

    What kind of reasons will be allowed for expediting i130 F2A application?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 17, 2013 at 12:47 PM

      Checkout this link from USCIS:

      http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16a6b1be1ce85210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=db029c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCRD

      Delete
  10. AnonymousJune 17, 2013 at 1:32 PM

    Hi Amazon,

    I am on H1B and am going for stamping in August 25 and my F2A PD is 12 April, 13. If the F2A becomes current and am outside USA can I file for I-485 and Advance Parole from outside of USA?

    How to file that from outside USA?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 17, 2013 at 2:59 PM

      You have to be inside US to file I-485 application.

      If you are outside US, you can go for consular processing.

      Delete
  11. AnonymousJune 17, 2013 at 2:21 PM

    Hi,

    Thanks for the wonderful analysis. I have this situation:
    In Feb 2013 I filed I130 for my wife who is working on H1B visa. The case is still pending with VSC. The recent (July '13) visa bulletin predicts that F2A will become current in coming months. If this category becomes current, can I file I485? I called USCIS and the person I spoke with was not very clear on this. If I can file I485, what should I select in Part 2 of the I485 application (I am applying for an adjustment to permanent resident status because....?

    Can you please help?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousJune 17, 2013 at 2:31 PM

    Hi Amazon,

    Sorry, I forgot to mention this in my previous post (June 17, 2013 at 2:21 PM). I am an LPR filed I130 for my wife.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 17, 2013 at 3:09 PM

      Since your wife is applying for I-485 based on your LPR status, "b" would be the best option.

      Also please see this article explaining I-485 process:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
  13. AnonymousJune 18, 2013 at 10:17 AM

    what happens if you turn 21 while waiting for F2A process for the past one year and half?

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousJune 19, 2013 at 4:00 PM

    First off, it's like finding a treasure! Great info in these blogs!

    I have LPR status and in the process of applying for I-130 for my spouse. She has Indian passport currently and in the process of obtaining Singapore passport. Does changing the passport while I-130 application is pending going to affect the dependent LPR process?

    Also, if we file for I-130 and when the F2A category becomes current in the next few months, are we going to be able to apply for I-485 right away? Could you please elaborate on the F2A becoming current? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonJune 19, 2013 at 11:32 PM

      Hi anonymous, could you kindly post these questions in the forum:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum

      It would be much easier to answer them over there.

      Delete
  15. UnknownJuly 31, 2013 at 9:02 AM

    My immigration date is 17/09/2003 and my notice date is 22/09/2003 so, how much time it would take to receive the date and what is the date????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AmazonAugust 6, 2013 at 4:42 PM

      To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this calculator:

      http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete

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