Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Analysis: June 2013 Demand Data

For June 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/demand-data-for-june-2013-visa-bulletin.html

Demand Data Analysis:

Every month each country in each category (EB1, EB2 and EB3) is eligible to get 233 visas (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)/12. This does not include the 18,000 additional spillover from FB category to EB category in FY 2013.

Important Change: Until May 2013 Demand Data, DOS reported cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2012. From June 2013 Demand Data, DOS has started reporting cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2013.

EB2 India: Till Jan 2005, the numbers went up from 425 to 450. This means there was approximately 450-425+233= 258 extra demand added from last month. The porting rate is remaining constant around 300 cases per month in EB2 India category. Similarly the demand increased by 300 between Jan 2009 and Jan 2013.

Since there would be very few initial EB2 cases prior to Jan 2005, most of these 450 preadjudicated cases could be porting from EB3 (though porting cases are "typically" not included in demand data until PD are current). Porting typically takes 6-9 months to complete. So we may continue to see increase in demand in EB2 India.

Since EB2 India dates only reached May 2010 in the last 2 year, it means 5050 cases are pre adjudicated for PD between Jan 1, 2010 and May 2010. This comes to around 1000 per month - which is close to numbers reported in I-485 pending inventory.

Based on analysis, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India should remain around 300-400 per month for month of July 2013. For the month of August 2013 and September 2013, the porting rate could increase to 1000+ per month (depending on how much visa bulletin moves forward).

The is because in FY 2013, EB category will be getting 18000 unused visa from FB categories.  Hence USCIS/DOS will most likely move dates forward in July 2013 VB for EB2 India to around 2007-2008. We will publish another post on how far EB2 India and other categories could go from July to Sept VB.

Tip: There is over 95% probability that the dates for EB2 India can retrogress back to Dec 2004 (or early 2005) from FY 2014 - which is from October 2013 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 China:  The demand prior to Jan 2009 has decreased  by 425 (2,575 to 2150). Since there is no demand in EB2 China before Jan 2008, all of FB/EB spillover in EB2 category should be applied to EB2 India (which is backlogged till Sept 2004).

EB2 ROW: The demand in this category is fixed at 150 till Jan 2013. We do not know the demand from Jan 2013 to May 2013. If the annual demand this fiscal year is much higher than 34,436 (40040-2802-2802 for EB2 ROW-India-China), than this category would retrogress.

Charles Oppenheim had hinted on this category possibly retrogressing if demand is higher. If EB2 ROW retrogresses (before FB/EB spillover is applied), then EB2 India and EB2 China will become unavailable. This is because India and China are the top two countries consuming visas and hence they would use up their quota before the rest of world does. EB2 ROW retrogressing is VERY unlikely based on current data.

EB3 India: Demand in this category decreased from 650 to 200 till Jan 1, 2004. Similarly cumulative demand in this category shows a downward decline till Jan 1, 2007 (total demand decrease of about 825 compared to decrease of 1000 last month). However demand is still too high in this category. Hence EB3 India might continue to move forward around 2 weeks per month.

According to Charles Oppenheim, when an applicant ports from EB3 to EB2, they are counted twice. Only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file number go away. At that time, Mr. Oppenheim’s office is told by USCIS to cancel a pending EB-3 case.

EB3 Philippines:  The cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2007 decreased by 150 from 3700 to 3550. It had decrease by 250 in the last month.

EB3 ROW: Demand is only 450 in this category. As we mentioned in the EB3 visa bulletin movement article, EB3 ROW should see a very rapid forward movement in cutoff dates for the next few months.

EB3 China: Another interesting statistics is EB3 China. Unlike EB2 China, there is not much demand in EB3 China category till Jan 2012. This is interesting because demand from China has/had increased in EB1, EB2 and EB5 categories. EB3 China could move ahead of EB2 China in either June or July VB.

EB3 China, EB3 Mexico and EB3 ROW should now have the same cutoff dates in June 2013 visa bulletin.

 
Many people don't know that demand data only includes I-485 applications which has been pre-adjudicated and is just awaiting visa numbers. This may include some consular processing cases also. I-485 pending inventory includes all I-485 pending cases (but does not include consular processing cases).

As USCIS/DOS moves visa bulletin dates forward the cumulative demand will keep increasing (since supply is fixed). Currently the only way to lower demand and have faster date movement  is (a) porting from EB3 to EB2 category or (b) demand destruction.

Tip: Demand destruction could be due to multiple things: People changing jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the entire process again), people getting laid off and going back home, people abandoning their GC process because of frustration, people going back home due to better opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and wife both have PERMs filed, people updating to EB1, people getting married to EB2ROW candidates (or GC holders, US citizens etc). 

Conclusion: If porting demand from EB3 India to EB2 India continues at current rate of 300 per month (or 3600 per year), it would quickly use up the 2802 annual quota for EB2 India (excluding any EB/FB spillovers). Similarly EB2 India could retrogress if porting demand is higher and before FB/EB spillovers is applied.

Consular processing account for about 15% of total 140,000 visas in EB category. Also the demand data (and I-485 pending inventory) does not include applicants (and their dependents) who have approved I-140 but have not yet filed I-485 application.

EB Spillover Rules:

If you are not aware, EB spillovers  refers to visas in other categories (EB4, EB5, EB1) that DOS thinks would not be used up this fiscal year. Per law, any unused visas would flow to retrogressed categories in this order: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 -- > EB3.

Unused visas also fall across the category to most retrogressed country. Example: EB2 ROW --> EB2 India

Before assigning spillovers, Charles Oppenheim (DOS Chief)  has to make a best and worst case estimate of how many visas will be unused per category this fiscal year. Due to fluctuating demand in EB2, he might wait till July to assign expected spillovers (else if his estimates are incorrect, many people in EB4, EB5 and EB1 category may not get the visas - though they would only have to wait few more months before the next fiscal year starts). Also if his spillover estimates are higher, he may retrogress dates in September Visa Bulletin to make sure that visa count stays within permissible limits. Hopefully this article gives a quick overview of how things work "behind the scenes" and help answer your questions.

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14 comments:

  1. going by this demand data, do you think Oct 2007 (EB2 India) will be current in July VB ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible - based on how much spillovers EB2 India gets from other EB categories (which depends on how much demand is in those categories).

      Delete
  2. How do I know whether my I-485 case is pre-adjudicated ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The easiest way is to call and ask them (L2 officer). Another option is to send out a FOIA request.

      Delete
  3. Hello! It would seem now, that Philippines EB3 is slow turtle moving. And all unused EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2 from other countries are being devoured by India. Can you please update what is the recent status of EAD for H4 Visa Holders? Thank you so much in advance for everything in this blog. The insights are clear and very impressive. More Power to you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is currently under "Review Extended" status.

      See the link below. It has more useful links:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/01/likely-release-timeline-of-proposed.html

      Delete
  4. My PD is March 23, 2007 Philippines EB3. I know that the GC is gonna eventually come. But my daughter is entering her senior year in September 2013 and will be graduating in June 2014. She has a lot of big universities and Ivy Leagues offering her scholarships but couldn't get it without a GC. Our decision for her college is based on the immigration status or else she'll go back to the Philippines to study. Is it possible we will get our GC befors June 2014? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congratulations for your daughter getting so many scholarship from top universities. She must be very talented and hard working.

      Based on current data, it would be very hard to estimate the dates. We are waiting for updated data from USCIS. It should hopefully be out soon.

      Some states allow students to pay in-state tuitions when they have been residing in that state for some period of time. Maybe you can look into that? This can reduce the cost of college.

      Also there are many scholarships available for "international students". I am not sure if she qualifies for that. You can directly inquire with college and they should be happy to help you.

      Delete
  5. I have a doubt. The figure shows here is just the applicant numbers or (applicant+ family members)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Madhu, monthly demand data includes primary applicant and all dependents.

      Delete
  6. Hello, my priority date is Jan 2010 (EB2 India), I missed out when it was current the last year. Do you think it will be current this year or in next few bulletins? Appreciate your help. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Based on current porting rate from Eb3 India to EB2 India and expected spillovers from other EB categories, dates might not move that far.

      Please see this article for EB2 India:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb2-india-analysis-and-prediction.html

      Delete
  7. July demand data is released by USCIS.

    ReplyDelete

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