Analysis: Visa Bulletin June 2013

For June 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/visa-bulletin-june-2013.html

EB1: All EB1 categories continues to remain current. Though EB1 China and EB1 India have already used up their annual quota (and currently using visas from EB1 ROW since January 2013), this category should continue to remain current this fiscal year. However this would affect amount of spillovers to EB2 categories.

EB5: This category continues to remain current. Since demand is 75% higher than last fiscal year (according to Charles Oppenheim), the amount of spillover to EB2 category would be much lower than last year.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office had earlier mentioned of a possible EB2ROW retrogression if demand is high. Due to expected EB/FB spillovers in next few visa bulletins, we do not expect this category to retrogress. Due to retrogression in EB2 ROW last year, it would be consuming more visas than it did last fiscal year.

EB2 India: As per Charles Oppenheims predictions, there was (again) no movement in this category. You can read this article on why EB2 India is not moving forward since May 2012. However EB2 India should FINALLY move forward in the next visa bulletin (due to EB spillovers).

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 8 weeks this month. Since EB2 China has already reached 2008, most of the EB/FB spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 should go to EB2 India in the last quarter. Please also see section EB3 China.

EB3 ROW:  EB3 ROW got the biggest boost and moved by nine months. This big move was made to fill the pipeline - thus allowing USCIS/DOS to exactly know how many cases are present. This will help them avoid wasting visa before the fiscal year ends in September 30.

EB3 China: EB3 China also moved forward by 9 months. As we had predicted earlier, EB3 China has finally moved ahead of EB2 China (for the first time in history).  We would not recommend people port from EB2 to EB3 due to three reasons: (a) Additional fees required for EB2 filing (USCIS + lawyers) (b) The process takes 6-9 months (c) There is a high probability that EB3 would retrogress in October 2013 VB (whereas EB2 China could continue to move ahead).

EB3 Mexico: Due to low demand, EB3 Mexico also moved forward by nine months. Dates should continue to remain same as EB3 ROW.

Dates for EB3 China and EB3 Mexico should continue to be same as EB3 ROW.

EB3 India: Due to huge demand and as Charles Oppenheim predicted, EB2 India moved by two weeks forward. On a positive side, it is continuing to slowly move forward every month (unlike EB2 India). One of the reason of forward movement could be people who are porting to EB2 India - thus freeing up visas for others applicants in this category. Unlike China, EB3 India is not likely to move ahead of EB2 India due to huge backlog. Even if everyone ported from EB3 to EB2, their application would be open in both categories (and Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office has confirmed that they are been counted twice).

EB3 Philippines: This category got the smallest forward movement of just one week. Due to huge pending inventory and according to Charles Oppenheim prediction, it may continue to move forward slowly. However, it may jump by 2-3 weeks when the FB spillover is applied.

Tip: If you don't know, Charles Oppenheim creates and publishes the monthly visa bulletin. He works at Department of State (DOS) and is the Chief of "Visa Control and Reporting Division".

Family Categories:

All family categories continue to move forward except F4 ROW, F4 China and F4 India. These three categories did not move at all this month. This is the second consecutive month that the dates have not moved at all. This is due to much heavier demand than expected during that time period (April 22 to Apr 30, 2001).

All of the Philippines category (F1 to F4) saw a jump of around 1-6 months. F1 Philippines continues to move forward at fast pace. It has now moved forward more than 2 years in the last six months; compared to EB3 ROW which moved forward by 14 months in just two VB (and could move forward by another 5-6 months in the next VB).

The smallest forward movement was in F1 and F4 Mexico which moved by only one week. Other FB categories moved by 2-4 weeks.

Did you know: Every year move than 1 million visas are allotted. Family based categories get 66%  - whereas employment based categories get only 14%. Learn more statistics here.

Also See:

June 2013 Demand Data (with analysis): http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/demand-data-for-june-2013-visa-bulletin.html

May 2013 Visa Bulletin: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/visa-bulletin-may-2013.html

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