For June 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/demand-data-for-june-2013-visa-bulletin.html
Demand Data Analysis:
Every month each country in each category (EB1, EB2 and EB3) is eligible to get 233 visas (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)/12. This does not include the 18,000 additional spillover from FB category to EB category in FY 2013.
Important Change: Until May 2013 Demand Data, DOS reported cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2012. From June 2013 Demand Data, DOS has started reporting cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2013.
EB2 India: Till
Jan 2005, the numbers went up from 425 to 450. This means there was approximately 450-425+233= 258 extra demand added from last month. The porting rate is remaining constant
around 300 cases per month in EB2 India category. Similarly the demand increased by 300 between Jan 2009 and Jan 2013.
Since there would be very few initial EB2 cases prior to Jan 2005, most of these 450 preadjudicated cases could be porting from EB3 (though porting cases are "typically" not included in demand data until PD are current). Porting typically takes 6-9 months to complete. So we may continue to see increase in demand in EB2 India.
Since EB2 India dates only reached May 2010 in the last 2 year, it means 5050 cases are pre adjudicated for PD between Jan 1, 2010 and May 2010. This comes to around 1000 per month - which is close to numbers reported in I-485 pending inventory.
Based on analysis, the porting rate from EB3
India to EB2 India should remain around 300-400 per month for month of July 2013.
For the month of August 2013 and September 2013, the porting rate could increase to 1000+ per month (depending on how much visa bulletin moves forward).
The is because in FY 2013, EB category will be getting 18000 unused visa from FB categories.
Hence USCIS/DOS will most likely move dates forward in July 2013 VB for
EB2 India to around 2007-2008. We will publish another post on how
far EB2 India and other categories could go from July to Sept VB.
There is over 95% probability that the dates for EB2 India can
retrogress back to Dec 2004 (or early 2005) from FY 2014 - which is from
October 2013 Visa Bulletin.
EB2 China: The
demand prior to Jan 2009 has decreased by 425 (2,575 to 2150). Since
there is no demand in EB2 China before Jan 2008, all of FB/EB spillover in EB2 category
should be applied to EB2 India (which is backlogged till Sept
EB2 ROW: The
demand in this category is fixed at 150 till Jan 2013. We do not know
the demand from Jan 2013 to May 2013. If the annual demand this fiscal
year is much higher than 34,436 (40040-2802-2802 for EB2
ROW-India-China), than this category would
Charles Oppenheim had hinted
on this category possibly retrogressing if demand is higher. If EB2 ROW
retrogresses (before FB/EB spillover is applied), then EB2 India and
EB2 China will become unavailable. This is because India and China are
the top two countries consuming visas and hence they would use up their
quota before the rest of world does. EB2 ROW retrogressing is VERY unlikely based on current data.
EB3 India: Demand in this category decreased from 650 to 200
till Jan 1, 2004. Similarly cumulative demand in this category shows a
downward decline till Jan 1, 2007 (total demand decrease of about 825 compared to decrease of 1000 last month). However demand is still too high in this category. Hence EB3 India might continue to move forward
around 2 weeks per month.
According to Charles Oppenheim, when an applicant ports from EB3 to EB2, they are counted twice. Only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file
number go away. At that time, Mr. Oppenheim’s office is told by USCIS to
cancel a pending EB-3 case.
EB3 Philippines: The
cumulative demand till Jan 1, 2007 decreased by 150 from 3700 to 3550. It had decrease by 250 in the last month.
EB3 ROW: Demand is only 450 in this category. As we mentioned in the EB3 visa bulletin movement article, EB3 ROW should see a very rapid forward movement in cutoff dates for the next few months.
EB3 China: Another interesting statistics is EB3 China. Unlike
EB2 China, there is not much demand in EB3 China category till Jan 2012.
This is interesting because demand from China has/had increased in EB1,
EB2 and EB5 categories. EB3 China could move ahead of EB2 China in either June or July VB.
EB3 China, EB3 Mexico and EB3 ROW should now have the same cutoff dates in June 2013 visa bulletin.
Many people don't know that demand data only includes
I-485 applications which has been pre-adjudicated and is just awaiting
visa numbers. This may include some consular processing cases also. I-485 pending inventory includes all I-485 pending cases (but does not include consular processing cases).
As USCIS/DOS moves visa bulletin dates forward the cumulative demand will keep increasing (since supply is fixed). Currently the only way to lower demand and have faster date movement is (a) porting from EB3 to EB2 category or (b) demand destruction.
Tip: Demand destruction could be due to multiple things: People
changing jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the
entire process again), people getting laid off and going back home,
people abandoning their GC process because of frustration, people going
back home due to better opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and
wife both have PERMs filed, people updating to EB1, people getting
married to EB2ROW candidates (or GC holders, US citizens etc).
Conclusion: If porting
demand from EB3 India to EB2 India continues at current rate of 300 per
month (or 3600 per year), it would quickly use up the 2802 annual quota
for EB2 India (excluding any EB/FB spillovers). Similarly EB2 India could
retrogress if porting demand is higher and before FB/EB spillovers is
processing account for about 15% of total 140,000 visas in EB category.
Also the demand data (and I-485 pending inventory) does not include
applicants (and their dependents) who have approved I-140 but have not
yet filed I-485 application.
EB Spillover Rules:
you are not aware, EB spillovers refers to visas in other categories
(EB4, EB5, EB1) that DOS thinks would not be used up this fiscal year.
Per law, any unused visas would flow to retrogressed categories in this
order: EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 -- > EB3.
Unused visas also fall across the category to most retrogressed country. Example: EB2 ROW --> EB2 India
assigning spillovers, Charles Oppenheim (DOS Chief) has to make a best
and worst case estimate of how many visas will be unused per category
this fiscal year. Due to fluctuating demand in EB2, he might wait till
July to assign expected spillovers (else if his estimates are incorrect,
many people in EB4, EB5 and EB1 category may not get the visas - though
they would only have to wait few more months before the next fiscal
year starts). Also if his spillover estimates are higher, he may
retrogress dates in September Visa Bulletin to make sure that visa count
stays within permissible limits. Hopefully this article gives a quick
overview of how things work "behind the scenes" and help answer your
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