Monday, December 16, 2013

February 2014 Visa Bulletin Predictions

For January 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/12/january-2014-visa-bulletin.html

For February 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/01/february-2014-visa-bulletin.html

Please see February 2014 Visa Bulletin Predictions below (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:
  • EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
  • EB2 Rest Of World: Current
    EB2 China: 5 weeks (still behind EB3 China)
    EB2 India: 0 day. Please see article
  • EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico): 2-5 months. Please see article.
    EB3 India: 0 day
    EB3 Philippines: 3-5 weeks
  • FB categories: 1-5 weeks. Please see article.
  • F2A: 0 day. It is likely to remain at this date for next few months.

Please Note: These numbers do not include the 10,000 additional unused visas from FB category to EB category.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 01JAN07 01JAN07 01JAN07 01OCT93 22JUL01
F2A 08SEP13 08SEP13 08SEP13 01SEP13 08SEP13
F2B 01JUL06 01JUL06 01JUL06 15APR94 22MAY03
F3 08MAY03 08MAY03 08MAY03 08JUN93 08FEB93
F4 22OCT01 22OCT01 22OCT01 08NOV96 08AUG90

Employment Based:

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 15JAN09 15NOV04 C C
3rd 01AUG12 01AUG12 01SEP03 01AUG12 08MAR07
Other Workers 01AUG12 01AUG12 01SEP03 01AUG12 08MAR07
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C

If you have not done it, please remember to add your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case to the GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

It would be very useful to understand how USCIS is currently processing cases. It would also help in estimating date movements in future VB.

We will update this table as we get more data. If you are interested, the dates above are based on following data:
  • Latest I-130/I-140/I-485 Processing Statistics (see link on right side) -->

Similar to EB3 category movement, we have added a blog post for EB2 category forward movement between August and December 2013. Please click here for FB category.

Next Steps: If priority date is current and

1. If applicant is inside US, they will have to file I-485: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

2. If applicant is outside US, it will be sent to NVC: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html

Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

44 comments:

  1. Hi amazon. Why is it that eb3 phils goes back to feb.8,2007, when it should be a 3-5 weeks movement on the next VB based on ur prediction?is this a typo error? Tnx and more power....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's March,8 not Feb,8

      Delete
    2. Hi Anonymous 1, thanks for letting me know. I have updated it to March.

      Delete
    3. Hi Anonymous 2, It was updated few minutes after anonymous 1 added his/her comment.

      Delete
  2. Hi Amazon...What do you think about F2A movements after few months? will it retrogress or move forward?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is currently not clear. USCIS will release demand on FB category around January. This should give more details on the current demand.

      Delete
    2. Amazon, why does F2B move faster than F1? Shouldnt preference go to US citizens over LPR? If cutoff date for F2B overtakes F1 what steps will NVC take (if any)? Doesnt seem right...

      Delete
    3. The forward movement depend on demand in each category. The demand in F2B is lower than F1 category. In addition a lot of visas have been wasted in f2a category in last few years. Hence the dates are ahead in this category. However f2a category is expected to retrogress in few months.

      Delete
  3. Hi Amazon. Firstly, thank you so much for you blog and the consistent effort you put into it month after month.
    Just out of curiosity I wanted to ask you about EB3ROW and its incredible progress in the past 8 months or so.
    I'm very aware that this game is all about supply and demand. I also understand that the USCIS has changed a bit on how they feed the demand pipeline. What is beyond me, and that only for the sake of knowledge and understanding, I would like to find out is: What went on in terms of amount of Approved Perms in FY 05, 06, 07 that it created a 6 yrs backlog. Maybe it has been explained elsewhere before.. I simply don't get it. The fact that "the wait" now (as of january 14) is about 1.5 years and that ap until May 13 it was a good long 6 yrs its lunatic.
    I know there was a the July 07 fiasco.. and that all that need to be cleared out of the way. But how many cases where stuck there? Was demand back there so significantly higher to posterior years that it indeed was worth several years of supply?
    Again, I know this is now the past.. it's over. And based on my very own calculations and guesstimations EB3ROW will be current in October 2014. But I really would like to fill the void of knowledge and understand why my friends with PD of 07 gor their GC recently and I will be getting mine shortly despite the fact that my PD is years past theirs.
    Thanks again! Your work in truly unvaluable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At its core, as you said it is supply and demand. The demand was much higher in 2007 and it decreased it a lot during 2008 - 2010. In addition, people started porting from EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW. This further result in demand destruction in EB3 ROW.

      The current forward movement is just to generate demand for the entire year. EB3 ROW has more than 40,000 visas available. It is likely to start retrogressing in either March or April VB (or dates may not move further). It would depend on how many people file their I-485 in the next 30-40 days.

      Delete
    2. Is there any chance that PR August 27 2013 will become current in Feb 2014 for ROW? Predictions show PR to be Aug 1 2013 but you mentioned movement somewhere between 2 - 5 months expected, if it moves 5 month then it will be Sept 1 2012

      Delete
    3. **Is there any chance that PR August 27 2012 will become current in Feb 2014 for ROW? Predictions show PR to be Aug 1 2012 but you mentioned movement somewhere between 2 - 5 months expected, if it moves 5 month then it will be Sept 1 2012

      Delete
    4. Thanks a lot for your answer Amazon... it's almost incredible that I got so lucky I suppose. My friends had waited for so long I was expecting to be waiting for about the same amount of time. Demand destruction did it for me. I became current on December. I will add my case to tracker as soon as I get a case number. Thanks a lot for keeping this blog going. Over the years a saw a few come and go. Yours is great.

      For the guy with PD Aug2012. Hold tight - have your documents ready. Your time will come pretty soon. Realize the amount of progress that has happened in the past calendar year and understand that you may become eligible at the beginning of FY2015 (oct 2014). A 2 year wait is a luxury. Take it easy .. you will make it.

      Delete
  4. What's happening with the F2A Visa?, it's been 4 bulletins already without movement

    ReplyDelete
  5. thank you Amazon for the February visabulletin prediction. More powers and God bless you always!!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Amazon..my priority date is 31 aug 2012 EB3 ROW. Do you think so I will be current in Feb 2014 vb.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's very possible that you will be current in the next couple of bulletins. Hold tight.

      Delete
  7. Hi Amazon,
    Would you please give us (EB3ROW) advise? What should we do now, and what would happen if the dates retrogresses as you are expecting?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yea! I've the same concern. I became current in January visa bulletin. Should I expect to become not current again soon? Should I file as soon as possible? When would I say that I am safe now? after I send the papers? or get it approved? or what?

      Delete
    2. Dates will not retrogress. send you sh!t and relax. Dates will cease from progressing but will not retrogress.

      Delete
    3. How do you know ?

      Delete
    4. Because they have been really careful in what dates to make current each bulletin. Because the amount of Approved Perms per FY is low compared to prior FYs. They will not move dates for a few months... but no retrogression. ideally they will release demand data to back up what I say.. but there's truly no reason to be so alarmed. have all ready and send when you become current. It will be OK.

      Delete
    5. Thanks your reply.

      Delete
    6. Hi anonymous - 1, EB3 ROW is expected to move forward by few months (and not retrogress). The only way it would retrogress is if they receive a lot of application to fill the entire quota for 2014.

      Delete
  8. Hi Amazon,
    Thank you for your dedication to this blog. I am new here but I picked up on a lot that I didn't know.
    I am a Canadian citizen getting married to an American GC holder in August of 2014. We are just starting to look at the process of me moving there after our wedding. I understand the importance of I-130 and we will be filing that as early as January of 2014. My question is, after we get married, am I allowed to live with my spouse in the US while my application is in queue? Or visit my spouse for long periods of time as long as I return before 6 months? We are in the process of getting a lawyer but any input from you would be greatly appreciated. Thank you for your time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure, you can get a visitor visa to visit your spouse and you can stay as long as the visa is valid.

      Delete
  9. Hi amazon;)Gud day!is there a chance for Eb3phil with december PD 2007 become current in the middle of fiscal year 2014?thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, to estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  10. Hey amazon. You are doing an amazing job. Love your blog especially since it focuses on all categories and not just India

    I have two questions for you

    1. Seems like the dates for EB3 ROW will move till Jan visa bulletin and then it will stop for a couple of months- maybe even till towards end of fiscal year, as the demand may be very high due to rigirous movement. Just asking, as I dont want to assume otherwise. I was thinking of getting my medical examination done in next 1-2 months.

    2. My priority date is 20 Nov 2012. For me to be able to file I485, the visa bulletin should show priorty date of later than that date right (21 Nov or late)? I know its a stupid question.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anon1,
      Priority date on VB should be past your own.
      PDs on VB are always either, 1,8,15,22 of any given month. So you should wait for VB to indicate NOV 22, 2012 or any date post that one.

      In terms of your PD becoming current and about your medical exams, it is my understanding that they accept doctors forms that have been signed within last 12 months. Either way I'd suggest you wait a bit to see how the VB progresses. I'm with you.. there might not be much progress for several months but that's not confirmed until Demand Data is release.. they should do so at some point soon. Then we should know how to "predict" progress on VB. For now make sure you have a copy of your birth certificate, passport pics, passport copies and other needed documents for AOS.
      When I did my medical examination a month ago it took less than a week to get documents from doctor. I went in on a tuesday the drew blood, did a tuberculosis test. Then I came back on thursday to see results. Since blood work showed all my immunisations are in order the doctor was able to complete documents and give them to me that same day.
      I hope this helps.

      Delete
    2. Thanks. That was quite helpful. I will just wait till we get the demand data in Jan to see where we stand.
      Btw how many gc are available for EB3-ROW for FY2014. Someplace I read it said around 28,000 ..I read here its around 40,000. Can you guide.

      Delete
    3. Each FY there's a a bit over 40K visas available for each category. Number increases based on spillovers.

      Delete
    4. The 40,000 visas is for entire EB3 category. For EB3 ROW, you will have to subtract other countries (India, Philippines, etc).

      Check out the break down in this link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/11/eb-category-to-receive-10000-additional.html

      As anonymous 2 said, the I-693 form is valid for 12 months and it typically takes less than a week to complete this form.

      Delete
  11. http://data.niunational.org/niu-exclusive

    Amazon, what do you make of this?

    Could you provide a bit analysis as to EB3 Chinese given everything from this source is substantiated. Will EB3 Chinese cutoff date move even faster than your Feb prediction? By March VB release, may we see cutoff date advance to say Mar/Apr 2013?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. When does the I-485 pending inventory come out- January timeframe?

    ReplyDelete
  13. February VB is out: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6242.html

    ReplyDelete
  14. EB3 only advanced 2 months!! (01 Jan 2012) I thought It was going to advance until August or September....

    ReplyDelete
  15. I thought same thing for EB3 Row in feb VB. But it is close to august. I think now it will move slowly like a month in each bulletin.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Feb 2014 is out. As usual, Amazon was spot on. Cant wait for march prediction

    ReplyDelete
  17. When f2a is going to move ?.I can't wait

    ReplyDelete
  18. Does anyone know why is the F2A current date stuck on Sept 8 2013 for the Rest of the World. My wife's priority date is Sept 12 2013.... It has been frusterating. We missed the current date by a few days...

    ReplyDelete
  19. HI Amazon, Any idea why is the F2A current date stuck on Sept 8 2013 for the Rest of the World. My wife's priority date is Sept 12 2013.... It has been frusterating. We missed the current date by a few days...

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/discuss


Comments posted above will only appear in this blog post. Comments posted below will appear across all blog posts:

comments powered by Disqus