Thursday, March 13, 2014

May 2014 Visa Bulletin Predictions

For April 2014 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/03/april-2014-visa-bulletin.html

Please see May 2014 Visa Bulletin Predictions below (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:

Please Note: These numbers do not include the 10,000 additional unused visas from FB category to EB category.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 15MAR07 15MAR07 15MAR07 15NOV93 08JAN02
F2A 08SEP13 08SEP13 08SEP13 15APR12 08SEP13
F2B 15DEC06 15DEC06 15DEC06 01MAY93 15JUN03
F3 15AUG03 15AUG03 15AUG03 01JUL93 01MAR93
F4 08DEC01 08DEC01 08DEC01 01DEC96 01NOV90

Employment Based:

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 15APR09 15NOV04 C C
3rd 01OCT12 01OCT12 15SEP03 01OCT12 08AUG07
Other Workers 01OCT12 01OCT12 15SEP03 01OCT12 08AUG07
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C

If you have not done it, please remember to add or update your I-130/NVC/I-140/I-485 case in the GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

It would be very useful to understand how USCIS is currently processing cases. It would also help in estimating date movements in future VB.

We will update this table as we get more data. If you are interested, the dates above are based on following data:
  • Latest I-130/I-140/I-485 Processing Statistics (see link on right side) -->

Similar to EB3 category movement, we have added a blog post for EB2 category forward movement. Please click here for FB category.

Next Steps: If priority date is current and

1. If applicant is inside US, they will have to file I-485: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

2. If applicant is outside US, it will be sent to NVC: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html

Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

21 comments:

  1. Thanks for the posting! Very helpful...However, do you think that maybe next quarter there may be more movement on EB3 ROW like maybe even go to Jan 2014, as the demand is low..I would think that they want to allocate more greencard under EB3 category this fiscal year and if not then there will be major spill over to India EB3, right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Then Please sign this petition

      https://www.change.org/petitions/citizenship-and-immigration-services-ombudsman-move-eb3-cut-off-date-forward-faster

      Delete
    2. I had answered this in earlier blog post comment. I will answer in more details below:

      1. Visa is typically allocated quarterly. Since we are more than 6 months into fiscal year 2014, in theory, USCIS has already assigned 50% of total quota of EB3 ROW. The quota for the EB3 category is around 40,000 visas. Subtract around 2,800 for each country (India, China, etc). This leaves EB3 ROW, Mexico and China quota around 34,400.

      If they have already allocated 50% of visas in last 6 months, we only have a quota of around 17,000 visas for next 6 months.

      Per the latest I-485 inventory, EB3 ROW already has over 15,000 pending applications.

      2. More importantly, this pending inventory is as of around January 3, 2014. In December 2013 visa bulletin, EB3 ROW date was 01OCT11. Most people with PD after that date would not appear in this latest I-485 pending inventory.

      Dates for EB3 ROW in the April 2014 visa bulletin was 01OCT12. Thus thousands of people with PD between 01OCT11 and 01OCT12 do not currently appear in this pending inventory.

      It is possible that the current demand (15,000 as per I-485 inventory) + demand for applicant from 01OCT11 and 01OCT12 may be sufficient to meet the remaining available quota of around 17,000. It also does not include applicant (with PD before 01OCT11) who have not yet filed I-485 applications.

      Per the earlier comments by Charles Oppenheim (head of visa office), dependents account for 55% of total demand. Hence the actual demand may be higher.

      This would explain why they are slowing down (or stopping) further movement of EB3 ROW, Mexico and China.

      There is still possibility that they would move dates forward around July 2014 visa bulletin. We would have to wait for more updated data from USCIS/DOS. Retrogression cannot be ruled out based on these numbers.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for details Amazon.

      If you think there would be retrogression, how much do you think we will retrogress by in EB3-ROW? Go back to Oct '11? or more like Jan'12 based on your estimates?

      The TSC is processing cases at the speed of a snail. Freaking processing times have moved 15 days in the last 3 months! While NSC continues to process within 4 months. Makes no sense.

      My priority date is Dec'11 and I applied in the first week of January. Got my fingers crossed to get my gc before dates retrogress. Even if they retrogress, do you think dates will start moving again starting October'14 visa bulletin as that would be the beginning of a new year?

      Delete
    4. If u read amazon's statement carefully, he is actually pretty optimistic about the retrogression. However, if there is a retrogression, fy 15 should be dedicatef to process all the excessive 485's that were turned in this year? Who knows, keep our fingers crossed, hopefully the dates will move to at least 1/1/2013 before it stops moving.

      Delete
    5. YA i realy do hope they stop in Jan 2013 over next 2-3 months...

      Delete
  2. No. My guess would be jan or feb of 2013 at the most. Then the dates could slow down and reach mid 2013 by the end of fiscal year 2015. Its good to have high hopes, but also need to be more realistic. Let's see what amazon has to say about it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I really wish DOS manipulates their numbers like they always do and gives 10K from EB to FB. That will create lots of noise and then DOS will at least double check all their numbers and stop the spillover from FB to EB when every freaking Family category is retrogressed.

    ReplyDelete
  4. You're right, Vijay. It really baffles me that there are spillovers coming from the FB category when some of them are backlogged by as much as 23 freakin' years! I would be very interested to see the mathematical formula for that. I know those that are in the EB categories wouldn't complain about it since they're the recipients of these spillovers, but as the great John F. Kennedy said, life is unfair.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Another idea would be to stop adding dependents to I-485 and just give the green card to the primary alone. Tell the dependants to apply under F2A category. That will create some more noise as well and then people will realize how families are torn apart because of this.

      Delete
    2. One idea is to go back to country where your families are...and stop spending our life without our families...life is short..how that sounds..?

      Delete
    3. Sad but true. +1

      Delete
    4. May be stop the entire GC process itself? That would be perfect!

      Delete
    5. Don't be selfish Vijay.

      Delete
  5. Hi

    i have get case complete status for my F2A india on 7th march 2014 by NVC, but my PD is not current but very close to current date 10th sept 2013.

    when can i expect my case to get transfer to mumbai consulate and when can i get my visa call.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The way F2A is moving, it is likely that you have to wait until next year.

      Delete
  6. I have a strong feeling that F1 is not going to move this month, if I'm wrong the cutoff day is going to move by 1 week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh shut up you stupid pessimist. Keep your useless strong feeling to yourself.

      Delete
    2. I understand your feelings I felt the same way, but it's base on ILs being issued. It's just not looking good for F1 this month, I haven't seen any IL with forward movement.

      Delete
  7. is it unusual that May bulletin is still not out?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anyone know why its been a while without any movement on the F2A?

    ReplyDelete

Comment Posting Tips:

1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

2. View or add your I-130/I-485/NVC case to GC Tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/tracker

3. You can browse or post new questions in GC Forum: http://www.mygcvisa.com/forum