Sunday, October 13, 2013

Predictions: December 2013 Visa Bulletin

For October 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/visa-bulletin-october-2013.html

For November 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-november-2013.html

Please see December 2013 Visa Bulletin Predictions below (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:
  • EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
  • EB2 Rest Of World: Current
    EB2 China: 4 weeks (still behind EB3 China)
    EB2 India: It is likely to retrogress from June 2008 to around Feb 2005. Please see article
  • EB3 (ROW, Mexico): 8-12 months. Please see article.
    EB3 China: 2 weeks
    EB3 India: 0 day
    EB3 Philippines: 2 weeks
  • FB categories: 1-4 weeks. Please see article.
  • F2A: 0 day. It is likely to remain at this date for next few months.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 22NOV06 22NOV06 22NOV06 01OCT93 01AUG01
F2A 08SEP13 08SEP13 08SEP13 01SEP13 08SEP13
F2B 22APR06 22APR06 22APR06 22APR94 01APR03
F3 01MAR03 01MAR03 01MAR03 08JUN93 22JAN93
F4 08SEP01 08SEP01 08SEP01 08NOV96 15MAY90

Employment Based: 

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 08NOV08 01FEB05 C C
3rd 01OCT11 15OCT10 22SEP03 01OCT11 01JAN07
Other Workers 01OCT11 15OCT10 22SEP03 01OCT11 01JAN07
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers and Pilot Programs C C C C C

If you have not done it, remember to add your case to the GC tracker: http://www.mygcvisa.com/ tracker/

It would be very useful to understand how USCIS is currently processing cases. It would also help in estimating date movements in future VB.

We will update this table as we get more data. If you are interested, the dates above are based on following data:
  • Latest I-130/I-140/I-485 Processing Statistics (see link on right side) -->

Similar to EB3 category movement, we have added a blog post for EB2 category forward movement between August and  December 2013. Please click here for FB category.

Next Steps: If priority date is current and

1. If applicant is inside US, they will have to file I-485: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

2. If applicant is outside US, it will be sent to NVC: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html 

Recommended Reading:


More Reading:

Please click here for latest immigration news or see the right side menu for the latest analysis, news stories and other useful FAQ or USCIS links --> 

50 comments:

  1. Hi Amazon
    What about those who have filed f2a petition for there respective spouse and they are waiting for NOA2. How much Nebraska service center is taking time to approve since no processing time is availble in uscis for i130 NSC. My PD is June 12th 2013. Case transferred to NSC from VSC on sep.10th 2013. Please help me out how much time it wil take for NOA2. Thanks In advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should expect the approval within a month after the transfer. Since the processing time is 5 months at VSC, you should get your NOA2 by mid of Nov. My case was transferred on 20th Aug and approved on Sep 22. Good luck.

      Delete
    2. Hi Anonymous,
      First of all, Thanks a lot i really appreciate it.Meanwhile VSC is showing 5 month not NSC where my file has been transferred on sep 10th.And can you give me idea if date remains same for december to for f2a category how much time it will take for interview if i get approval by mid November.Thank you very much.

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    3. I filed my wife's AOS on Aug 01, 2013 (when the F2A became current) when the I-130 was pending with VSC. We got the interview notification on Sep 15 (still I-130 was pending after transferred to NSC) and the interview is in 2 days. FYI, I contacted my Congressman's office after the processing dates for VSC was updated to 5 months (from Oct 2012 I guess).

      Delete
  2. Hi AMAZON,

    Just would like to ask if my status (F2b Philippines - April-16-2003) is current. How long will it took me to wait for the schedule of my interview?. Thanks.


    Mr. Angeles City

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Amazon! Thanks for the posts! I'm wondering about EB 3 ROW. In prior recent months your predictions have been very conservative if not pessimistic - forecasting a possible retrogression. Yet for DEC VB you are not suggesting a possible retrogression. What is driving this prediction that is different from previous ones? are AOS numbers available? isn't this category close to maximum capacity/ demand? is it not? I'm not personally disagreeing with the prediction. I too think it will not move in DEC VB and hope for it to move slightly forward in JAN VB - Q2 FY14.
      All I'd like to know is what you are basing your predictions on? Do you still see space for a retrogression? what about EB 3 ROW becoming current in 12mo from now or so?

      Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Hi Gilbert, you will have to wait for the F2B Philippines date to move after your PD for your date to be current. For full steps at NVC, please see this link:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/09/nvc-consular-processing-steps.html

      Delete
    3. Hi anonymous, you are correct. EB3 ROW, Mexico and China have already reached their capacity and is likely to retrogress in the December VB. We will have to wait for I-485 pending inventory to get an idea of current demand and get an estimate of possible retrogression.

      Also unlike last few years, DOS have changed their strategy. Earlier they used to be conservative and retrogress as early as they can.

      Now they seem to assign spillovers early instead of waiting till last quarter of fiscal year (example for EB2 India). This could be because they want to be ready if CIR starts moving (as they mentioned in earlier blog post). Hence they are keeping dates steady or moving forward to generate more demand.

      Because of this completely different strategy, the estimates for EB3 ROW has changed.

      BTW, the earlier prediction was based on USCIS receiving a huge amount of application when they moved dates forward by around 2 years. Even they (DOS) were surprised when the actual demand was very low. Hence they (DOS) had to assign a lot of spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3 India and EB3 Philippines in last quarter of FY 2013 to avoid wasting visas.

      After they moved dates forward again by one year to 2010, they have said that they have received sufficient demand (maybe for entire year). Hence the pending inventory would give a better idea; assuming it is not around two months old data.

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    4. I have updated the blog post for EB3 ROW. It is likely to move further by 10-12 months.

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    5. Hi Amazon, I heard Charles Oppenheim also predict this. He said it will move like up to one year in few buletin. Do you think he has legit predictions?

      Thanks,
      Mar2603

      Delete
  3. To all of you who complains that predictions are way off, I just wanted to say, that these are what predictions are for: to predict, to estimate the possible movement and not guarantee the exact turn out of the events. Amazon is doing a great job in providing as much information as he/she can. The blog is very informative and helpful in many areas. Do not lay out here your frustration with poor government performance and bash the admin of this webpage. If you don't like what you're read here - call a lawyer, get charged $$$ per consultation and hear what you want to hear. Being conservative is better than promising something that is hard to achieve. One can only guess!
    Amazon, keep up the great work, which is greatly appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you...

      Delete
    2. Bump (see my direct reply to the moron above). Don't mind that bitter hater. Forgive me, Amazon, for the slightly salty language, but everybody here tries to be as professional and courteous as they could be and yet you still get your fair share of moronic haters.

      Delete
    3. Thank you everyone. It means a lot for your support.

      To others: It is very easy to ALWAYS predict forward movement in all categories. This will make everyone happy.

      However the goal of this site is to provide estimation based on available data. It is actually harder to post that dates could retrogress instead of simply posting that dates will continue to move forward (as some sites does to keep everyone happy).

      I know this is not what many people are expecting and hence get angry when they read it. But dates movements are not random. It is based on supply and demand. The supply is generally fixed, but the demand keeps changing every month.

      In addition, there are many other factors which could affect date movement (spillovers, filling pipeline of cases, visa unused at consulate location abroad, etc). Only USCIS and DOS have this latest data available. They do not share this data in real time.

      Hope this was helpful in understanding the process. There are many blog posts I have written about this process, visa allocation, etc. You can check the blog archive for more details. There are also lots of good questions and answers in old blog posts.

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    4. Dude, you don't need to explain yourself. Anybody who reads this blog and consider themselves competently intelligent can make the necessary deductions from the figures themselves. Just keep up the great work, and we sure appreciate your regularly-written articles and up-to-date information.

      Delete
    5. I wish there was a LIKE button in this blog. Well said bro. Awesome job Amazon.

      Delete
  4. Amazon's prediction for FB1 was actually only 1 day off (for the November bulletin), so they get a pat on the back as far as I am concerned.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi I just got my greencard on 10 oct for 2007 pd. I applied for my wife I485 in aug 2013. She got her ead, can some tell me how long it will takes to get her gc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this blog post:

      http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/04/how-to-file-i-485-application.html

      Delete
    2. be patient man, what else do you want, she got her ead, that is good sign. just wait .

      Delete
  6. Hi, Amazon, thanks for the update of Dec prediction, I don't understand why EB3C demand in such low # and just move 2 weeks compared with EB3 ROW and EB3 Mexico? they used to move in the same pace, can you shed some lights on this matter? is it a mistake?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The expected demand in China is much higher in the EB3 category compared to EB3 ROW category. Remember EB3 China only have quota of 2,802 visas per year. EB3 ROW has around 40,000 for the entire year.

      Delete
  7. My priority date is May 6, 2002 for F4.. in ur opinion when i will be current

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To estimate when priority date can be current, please see this GC Calculator: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator

      Delete
  8. Hello Amazon,

    Thanks for the update and interesting way of analyzing the data. I guess we will have to see if the forward movement on EB3ROW is really that much next month.

    If that is the case, I would imagine in FY2012 there were more applications for PERM for EB3ROW than FY2011, and FY2013 even more than FY2012. At any rate, the 40,000 visa allocation seems to be too much right now for this category. All things considered, do you have any reason to believe that they will want to continue to advance EBROW and make it current at some point in FY2014 or FY2015??? Being current on this category can free them up a little to spill over to other categories, which they have been doing lil by lil...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 40,000 is the default allocation to EB3 ROW ever year, In addition, it also gets some spillovers from FB category.

      Since we do not know the demand in future (except that it is going to increase), we cannot estimate the dates that far in future.

      Delete
  9. Hello Amazon,
    cant thank you enough for your insights into the visa numbers and predictions. I realize from the recent AILA outcome that the EB5 cat is now filing up this lower spillover may be next year. My PD is June 17th, 2008 EB2 india - missed by two days this year. Do you still expect that I will get current in May of next year? Lot depends on this. Thank you again!- Valli

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You Missed by 3 days not 2 days. Same with me I missed by 8 days.

      Delete
    2. Please also let me now that will EB2-I date can reach to July-1-2008 ?
      Please !

      Delete
    3. It will completely depend on amount of spillovers from other EB categories to EB2 India. I will add a blog post about it.

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    4. Thank you Amazon.- Valli

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    5. How much spillover will be required to reach EB2-I to Jul-1-2008 ? Please also estimate Best and Worst Scenario ?

      Delete
  10. Hi Amzaon,

    I really appreciate your work on creating this blog. Kudos to you all.

    My PD is last week of Oct 2012. Can i start making preparations for my 485 or is too early to think about that? Please let me know. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By the way its EB3ROW.

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    2. One thing you can do is to get your birth certificate ready.

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    3. My PD is Sep 2012, and I too am beginning to get hopeful that at some point in 2014, my PD will become current. If next month we see the EB3ROW dates move up to Oct 2011 (which is very possible), then I am planning on gathering up some of the pre-requisite materials for filing I-485, like my birth certificate and the medical exam, which is valid for 12 months from the date it's done.

      Here's to hoping we have a Green 2014!

      Delete
  11. Hey Amazon,

    How are your predictions so very accurate ? Do you work on the inside (wink wink) ? Don't you worry - I won't tell.

    Thanks again for the invaluable service you provide.

    ReplyDelete
  12. my PD is middle of May, 2011. I hope to get current next visa bulletin.
    Thank you Amazon for your tremendous job. We really appreciated your dedicated work.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dear Amazon,

    Are you on Vacations ........

    ReplyDelete
  14. New pending inventory is out and per data as of 10/1/2013 EB 3 ROW has only about 13,700 cases..... What a good news for EB 3 folks..... heheheheh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it's really encouraging!!! Hopefully this trend continue!!

      Delete
  15. hi amazon,how long do you think f2a would remain at it's current date,and can you predict when will be the retrogression?thank you

    ReplyDelete
  16. How much spillover will be required to reach EB2-I to Jul-1-2008 ? Please also estimate Best and Worst Scenarios ?

    ReplyDelete
  17. What would be your prediction next year on EB3 philippines July 2007

    ReplyDelete

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